Policy
Two briefs applying the independence pricing error to governance and macroeconomic risk. The first measures the coupling between economies. The second measures the coupling between policies within a single country—and what to do about it.
Brief 1 · Between countries
When Economies Fall Together
9× more volatile
2.3× deeper
$2–3T per episode
Fifty-four years of GDP growth in twenty OECD countries. Contractions bunch into a few severe years. The aggregate economy is 9× more volatile than independence predicts. Three impact measures and five policy actions.
Brief 2 · Within a country
When Policies Are Made Apart
5 coupled dials
$1–2T CAD
15–20 yr recovery
Canada 2015–2025: immigration, housing, energy, healthcare and fiscal policy each set independently. The coupling made the total cost 2–3× the sum of the parts. Five lessons for how policy should be made today.